How do brokerages respond to the A-share market outlook in the fourth quarter?

　　After the shock adjustments in the first three quarters and the short-term surge in the past half month, we remain cautiously optimistic about the judgments on the A-share strategy for 2024 recently released by multiple brokerages.

　　In terms of specific configuration, the “dumbbell strategy” that takes into account both flexible growth direction and high-dividend dividend sectors has been unanimously recognized. The A-share market recovery has slowed down, and the incremental financial market outlook is highly anticipated.

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Optimistic about growth and dividend direction in the fourth quarter

　　In terms of market allocation in the fourth quarter, the “dumbbell strategy” is reflected in the fact that many brokerages tend to choose the direction of oversold rebound and are optimistic about technology growth. At the same time, due to defensive needs, the dividend sector also receives a lot of attention.

　　In terms of flexible growth configuration, Northeast Securities recommends choosing the upstream and downstream of industrial chains such as Huawei Chain, Fruit Chain, and Tesla Chain, as well as the low-altitude economy, unmanned economy, and digital economy. Zheng Xiaoxia, chief economist of Huaan Securities, believes that in the fourth quarter, growth themes represented by electronics and communications are expected to achieve ideal relative returns in the recovery and rebound market. In addition, some boom cyclical products, such as precious metals and electricity, should also be worth pursuing.

　　In terms of high dividend allocation, Northeast Securities holds the view that the dividend sector still has long-term investment opportunities, especially as the reform of state-owned enterprises accelerates. Yang Chao believes that the financial and real estate industries with more favorable policies are expected to drive the market to stop falling and rebound.

Brokerages cautiously optimistic

Financial increase expectations

　　The incremental fiscal policy that market institutions are currently looking forward to is about to be released. The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the morning of October 12 to explain the situation of “increasing countercyclical adjustment of fiscal policy and promoting high-quality economic development.”

　　“The policy may undergo an inflection point change, and the intention to stabilize the economy, real estate, and expectations is clear.” The national maritime policy remains optimistic. Deng Lijun, chief strategist of Huajin Securities, believes that there is an urgent need to expand domestic demand in the fourth quarter. If the fiscal policy is strengthened and currency interest rates are further cut, considering that the fourth quarter is the peak consumption season, the growth rates of consumption, manufacturing, and infrastructure investment are likely to pick up.

　　Looking forward to the fourth quarter, most brokerages are still cautiously optimistic and have high expectations for the incremental policies that may be implemented, especially fiscal policies.