＜Research＞UBS: CN Banks' 1H24 Results May Beat; Loan Rate Cuts Future Key Risk

　　UBS said in a report that most China banks will announce their 2Q24 and 1H24 results in mid-August, and the performance is expected to improve slightly QoQ. The broker believed that the main positive factor is stabilizing NIM largely due to lower deposit cost.

　　The broker said that loan growth may have decelerated to 9.2% YoY at the end of 2Q24. It expected the NPL ratio to remain roughly stable in the previous quarter and the credit cost to decline by 11 bps. For SOE banks, revenue/ PPOP/ NPAT could fall by 1.9%/ 3.1%/ 0.3% YoY on average.

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　　UBS said that some regional banks maintained their growth momentum, and expected that their 2Q24 revenue/ PPOP/ NPAT to rise 4.3%/ 7.5%/ 12.6% YoY. Yet, the growth momentum of each bank diverged.

　　UBS expected ABC (01288.HK) -0.020 (-0.567%) Short selling $133.44M; Ratio 24.468% , CITIC BANK (00998.HK) -0.020 (-0.431%) Short selling $33.79M; Ratio 23.492% , Bank of Nanjing (601009.SS) and CQRC BANK (03618.HK) -0.050 (-1.247%) Short selling $2.25M; Ratio 4.504% will fare better, among which ABC was anticipated to perform particularly well, with YoY growth in revenue/ PPOP/ NPAT recorded in the previous quarter.

　　(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2024-07-29 16:25.)

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