＜Research＞TF Securities Expects BABA-SW (09988.HK)'s 1FQ Non-GAAP NP to Fall 6% YoY, Dual Listing Conversion to be Completed in Aug

　　TF Securities released a report, forecasting BABA-SW (09988.HK) -0.150 (-0.205%) Short selling $174.37M; Ratio 18.970% to deliver revenue of RMB248.8 billion in 1QFY25, a YoY growth of 6.2%; adjusted EBITA of RMB40.5 billion, a YoY drop of 10.8% ; EBITA margin of 16.3%; and non-GAAP net profit of RMB42.1 billion, a YoY slip of 6%.

　　The broker expected Alibaba's Taobao and Tmall Group to record revenue increase of 2.8% YoY in 1FQ; Alibaba Cloud revenue to rise by 4.8% YoY; international commerce revenue to gain by 34.7% YoY; and local life revenue to hike by 11.1% YoY. Cainiao revenue was estimated to grow by 28.1% YoY, while Digital Media and Entertainment revenue was expected to decrease by 5%.

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　　In addition, Alibaba disclosed in its 4QFY24 financial report the progress of its voluntary conversion to a dual primary listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, stating that it is preparing for a primary listing in Hong Kong and looking forward to complete the conversion by the end of August this year.

　　Given Alibabas emphasis that it will continue to magnify investment to enhance its competitiveness, TF Securities revised its revenue forecasts for FY2025-27 from the original RMB 1.0196 trillion, RMB 1.11 trillion and RMB1.2123 trillion to RMB 1.0249 trillion, RMB1.1236 trillion and RMB 1.2193 trillion, representing YoY growth of 9%, 10% and 9%, respectively. Non-GAAP net profit forecast was revised upward from RMB155.8 billion, RMB160.4 billion and RMB163.8 billion to RMB156.5 billion, RMB162.2 billion and RMB164.7 billion. The Buy rating was maintained.

　　(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2024-07-26 12:25.)

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