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More rate cuts by PBOC to come: economists

iconRTHK·HK

2024-07-22 16:43

Economists are anticipating more interest rate cuts by the mainland‘s central bank this year, after the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) announced the re...
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  The PBOC lowered the one-year loan prime rate from 3.45 percent to 3.35 percent, and the five-year rate from 3.95 percent to 3.85 percent. File photo: Shutterstock

  Economists are anticipating more interest rate cuts by the mainland‘s central bank this year, after the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) announced the reduction of two benchmark rates on Monday.

  The PBOC lowered the one-year loan prime rate from 3.45 percent to 3.35 percent, and the five-year rate from 3.95 percent to 3.85 percent.

  Speaking to RTHK, Greater China Economist at Societe Generale Corporate and Investment Banking Michelle Lam said the rate cuts came earlier than expected, but she predicts the trims to have a limited impact on the mainland's economy.

  “We don't think that a 10 basis point cut will be a game changer. And also right now, there's a lot of weak confidence among households. So probably it will not be very impactful in terms of boosting household consumption,” she explained.

  “But still, it's better than not doing anything. So there will still be maybe somewhat marginally positive [impact] to support the domestic demand.”

  The rate cuts came after the mainland saw slower-than-forecast economic growth of 4.7 percent in the second quarter.

  Hunter Chan, a Greater China Economist at Standard Chartered, said he believes the rate reductions will provide some support to the mainland's economy.

  “The cutting is to strengthen the countercyclical adjustment and to support the real economy,” he said.

  “So we suggest the economy needs more supporting measures. And I guess the central bank also acted on that, to provide enough support to the real economy.”

  Chan said he expects there will be at least one 10 basis point rate cut in the fourth quarter of the year.

  The PBOC on Monday also lowered the interest rates on its standing lending facility, a type of loans that it lends to commercial banks.

  The overnight, seven-day and one-month rates were cut by 10 basis points to 2.55 percent, 2.7 percent and 3.05 percent respectively.

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