HSBC Global Research, in its report, said that the shipping stocks it covers have leaped 47% in aggregate since the Red Sea crisis at the end of November 2023, despite recent declines due to the Gaza ceasefire proposal.
The broker raised its 2024 earnings forecasts on shipping stocks it covers by 2%-112%, estimating a stronger 3Q24 than 2Q24 and a stronger 2H24 than 1H24. The broker foresaw operating profits on shippers of USD5.3 billion in 1H24 and up to USD8.5 billion in 2H24. While the Red Sea disruption may continue into 1H25, slower demand in 4Q24 could weigh on freight rates. However, the broker expected shippers to remain profitable in 4Q24.
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Other than Maersk, the broker lowered its TPs broadly for all HK-listed shippers, and downgraded COSCO SHIP HOLD (01919.HK) -0.100 (-0.906%) Short selling $13.87M; Ratio 13.132% from Hold to Underweight, and chopped its TP by 32% to HKD9.5 due to its lower valuation multiple. The broker also maintained a Buy rating on SITC (01308.HK) +0.200 (+1.091%) Short selling $5.51M; Ratio 22.841% and reiterated an Underweight rating on OOIL (00316.HK) +1.500 (+1.385%) Short selling $10.55M; Ratio 28.231% .
HSBC Global Research's ratings and TPs for shippers are listed below:
Stocks |Ratings | TPs
COSCO SHIP HOLD (01919.HK) -0.100 (-0.906%) Short selling $13.87M; Ratio 13.132% | Hold -> Underweight | $14 -> $9.5
OOIL (00316.HK) +1.500 (+1.385%) Short selling $10.55M; Ratio 28.231% | Underweight | $110 -> $85
SITC (01308.HK) +0.200 (+1.091%) Short selling $5.51M; Ratio 22.841% | Buy | $25 -> $24.5
(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2024-07-18 12:25.)
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