In a research report, Morgan Stanley chopped its target price on CTG DUTY-FREE (01880.HK) +2.650 (+5.062%) Short selling $46.24M; Ratio 20.046% from $85 to $60 and maintained its Equal-weight rating. The broker reduced its revenue forecasts for 2024 and 2025 by 13-14%, cut net profit forecasts by 6-14%, and forecasted 2024 net profit to be RMB1.3 billion.
Morgan pointed out that sales of physical duty-free ships in Hainan during April to May were worse than what the broker expected in early May. The broker currently estimated Hainan's overall duty-free sales to be RMB50 billion, while travel retail sales across the whole of Mainland this year would be roughly flat YoY. Morgan also believed China would not raise tax rates at the Third Plenary Session of CCP Central Committee, as that course of action would neither stimulate the economy nor reform the income disparity of local governments.
Related NewsM Stanley: Too Early to Determine Potential Impact of Consumption Tax Reform; CHINA DUTY FREE (601888.SH) Kept at Equalweight
Morgan predicted CTG DUTY-FREE's revenue decline in 2Q24 to widen further to a 13% YoY drop, but it also forecasted the company's operating gross profit to continue expanding to 12.6% in 2Q, with higher gross margins and lower selling expenses offsetting some of the operating leverage.
(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2024-07-04 16:25.)
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