June jobs report: US labor market set to show 'cooling but not cool' trend continues

　　The June jobs report is expected to serve as the latest piece of economic data reiterating that the US labor market is slowing down.

　　The monthly report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, slated for release at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, is expected to show nonfarm payrolls rose by 190,000 in May while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4%, according to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

　　In May, the US economy added 272,000 jobs while the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4%. Here are the key numbers Wall Street will be looking at compared to the previous month, according to data from Bloomberg:

• Nonfarm payrolls: +190,000 vs. +272,000 previously
• Unemployment rate: 4% vs. 3.9% previously
• Average hourly earnings, month over month: +0.3% vs. +0.4% previously
• Average hourly earnings, year over year: +3.9% vs. +4.1% previously
• Average weekly hours worked: 34.3 vs. 34.3 previously

　　The key question in Friday's report — and throughout the rest of 2024 — will be whether slowing monthly job growth reflects a normalization in the labor market or the early signs of a broader economic slowdown.

　　For now, economists believe Friday's data will favor the latter.

　　Bank of America US economist Michael Gapen reasoned in a weekly research note that the report will likely show a labor market that is “cooling but not cool.”

　　The report also comes as the stock market traded to record highs this week amid a slew of softer-than-expected economic data, including readings on inflation that have the US pacing back toward a “disinflationary path,” according to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

　　Ahead of Friday's jobs report, investors were pricing in two interest rate cuts this year, with the first most likely to come in September.

　　According to the CME FedWatch Tool, investors are pricing in a nearly 73% chance the Fed cuts rates in September. Last month, Fed forecasts suggested one rate cut would likely be appropriate this year.

　　Pedestrians and a construction worker walk past a lighted American flag in the rain in Times Square on Aug. 22, 2013, in New York City. (Mario Tama/Getty Images) (Mario Tama via Getty Images)

　　Labor market data out this week ahead of Friday's report has shown more signs of a slowdown.

　　On Wednesday, The ADP Research Institute's National Employment Report showed 150,000 jobs were added to the private sector in June, a deceleration from the 157,000 job additions in May.

　　Meanwhile, data from the Department of Labor showed nearly 1.86 million continuing unemployment claims were filed in the week ending June 29, up from 1.83 million the week prior. This marked the ninth straight week where continuing claims have risen.

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　　With unemployment claims rising and the unemployment rate at its highest level in more than two years, Wells Fargo senior economist Sarah House and other economists have noted that the key concern at the moment is that the labor market will keep decelerating to a weaker landing point than the pre-pandemic economy.

　　“Given the cooling evident over the past year in the labor market, we see further labor market weakening as becoming more worrisome and less welcomed by the Fed,” House wrote in a note to clients.

　　Other data out this week, however, reflected a labor market that is still showing some signs of resilience

　　On Tuesday, new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed there were 8.14 million jobs open at the end of May, an increase from the 7.92 million job openings in April.

　　The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) also showed the quits rate, considered a measure of worker confidence in the labor market, held steady at 2.2%, near its pre-pandemic levels. Additionally, the ratio of job openings to unemployed workers held at 1.2, also nearly in line with its 2019 average.

　　House noted that May's JOLTS report showed a labor market that, in many ways, “looks like its pre-pandemic self.”

　　“The JOLTS data suggest that the jobs market continues to move toward its pre-pandemic state, but at a pace that warrants caution more than alarm,” House wrote.

　　For now, Powell and the Fed see a labor market that is still cooling off at a pace the central bank is comfortable with.

　　Powell said Tuesday during a European Central Bank conference that the labor market isn't cooling too quickly, suddenly, or steeply.

　　Instead, Powell said labor market data has been “kind of what we were hoping to see, and what we have been seeing.”