＜Research＞JPM: Taobao's Optimized 'Refund Only' Strategy Positive for Alibaba (BABA.US) Stock Price, Earnings Outlook in Coming Qtrs

　　Taobao has recently optimised its “refund-only” policy. JPMorgan commented in a report that this would have a positive impact on the share price and earnings outlook of Alibaba (BABA.US) (09988.HK) -0.400 (-0.523%) Short selling $830.01M; Ratio 14.567% in the coming quarters. Meanwhile, Taobao's new policy also demonstrated the rising value proposition to merchants. The broker estimated the policy to apply to 40-45% of domestic e-commerce GMV, and increase revenue by RMB21.7 billion and profit by RMB13 billion next year.

　　JPMorgan expected Alibaba's customer management revenue (CMR) to rise in the coming quarters. In addition to the incremental commission-based earnings this time around, the broker believed that the adoption of platform-wide promotions will also improve profitability in the coming quarters. Accelerating CMR growth may come as a surprise as the new advertising system is fully implemented in 2H25.

　　The broker gave a US$100 target price for Alibaba US shares and a HK$95 target price for Alibaba H-shares of Ali, both of which are rated Overweight.

　　(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2024-07-29 16:25.) (Real-time Streaming US Stocks Quote; Except All OTC quotes are at least 15 minutes delayed.)